A Philosophical Essay On Probabilities - Laplace, Pierre Simon
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A philosophical essay on probabilities begins by establishing that much of what is considered human knowledge rests on the principles of probability rather than certainty. The essay presents a structured investigation into the nature and utility of probability, showing how it extends beyond games of chance into fields such as astronomy, jurisprudence, and social behavior. It emphasizes that probability emerges from ignorance of true causes and that rational decisions should be based on the best available data and inference. The early sections consider how prior beliefs influence our…mehr

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Produktbeschreibung
A philosophical essay on probabilities begins by establishing that much of what is considered human knowledge rests on the principles of probability rather than certainty. The essay presents a structured investigation into the nature and utility of probability, showing how it extends beyond games of chance into fields such as astronomy, jurisprudence, and social behavior. It emphasizes that probability emerges from ignorance of true causes and that rational decisions should be based on the best available data and inference. The early sections consider how prior beliefs influence our understanding and how probability serves as a bridge between ignorance and reasonable expectation. By tracing the evolution of the concept from superstition to science, the work affirms that what was once deemed chance can often be calculated, interpreted, and applied with mathematical rigor. The writing examines the philosophical implications of uncertainty and advocates for the application of probabilistic reasoning as a key method for approaching reality, whether through empirical study or moral judgment. Through this lens, the work outlines a vision where probability becomes a central tool in shaping knowledge, expectations, and action.
Autorenporträt
Pierre-Simon, Marquis de Laplace was born on March 23, 1749, in Beaumont-en-Auge, France, to Pierre Laplace and Marie-Anne Sochon. He became a foundational figure across multiple scientific domains, including physics, astronomy, mathematics, engineering, statistics, and philosophy. Educated at Caen-Normandy University from 1766 to 1769, Laplace initially focused on mathematics, eventually earning recognition for his analytical rigor and intellectual range. His most renowned work, M canique c leste, expanded on the theories of celestial mechanics developed by predecessors such as Isaac Newton and Leonhard Euler, transforming geometric astronomy into a form grounded in calculus. Laplace applied probability theory to scientific reasoning, popularizing its philosophical relevance through his essay on probabilities, which argued that human knowledge is often probabilistic rather than absolute. He contributed key insights into differential equations, thermodynamics, and the stability of the solar system. Influenced by figures like Abraham de Moivre, he, in turn, shaped generations of thinkers in mathematics and the sciences. His children included Charles mile de Laplace and Sophie-Suzanne de Laplace. He died on March 5, 1827, in Paris at the age of 77, leaving a legacy as one of the most comprehensive scientific minds of his era.