Baruch Fischhoff is an internationally known scientist, studying basic and applied decision making. A long-time faculty member at Carnegie Mellon University, he is an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Medicine.
Inhaltsangabe
Preface Acknowledgements Foreword by Paul Slovic What Decisions Do People Face? Chapter 1. Analyzing Decisions: Not as hard as it seems Chapter 2. The Ethics of Analysis: Once the terms are set, the calculations hardly matter Chapter 3. What Does Anyone Know? Uncertainty about the present and future How Do People Interpret Their Decisions? Chapter 4. What Did Anyone Know: Hindsight bias and vanishing uncertainty about the past Chapter 5. How Much Do We Need to Know: Getting the facts that matter Chapter 6. Knowing What You Can Get: Judging risks and benefits Chapter 7. Knowing What You Want: Facing hard tradeoffs Chapter 8. Decision Making Competence: Are some people better decision makers? How Can Science Support Their Decision Making? Chapter 9. Giving Advice: A case study of its perils Chapter 10. Making Research Useful: Nuclear power, energy conservation, climate change, drug regulation, national security Chapter 11. Better Decisions: Empowerment and manipulation Chapter 12. Conclusion: Science at the boundaries Coda: The Pandemic of 2020+
Preface Acknowledgements Foreword by Paul Slovic What Decisions Do People Face? Chapter 1. Analyzing Decisions: Not as hard as it seems Chapter 2. The Ethics of Analysis: Once the terms are set, the calculations hardly matter Chapter 3. What Does Anyone Know? Uncertainty about the present and future How Do People Interpret Their Decisions? Chapter 4. What Did Anyone Know: Hindsight bias and vanishing uncertainty about the past Chapter 5. How Much Do We Need to Know: Getting the facts that matter Chapter 6. Knowing What You Can Get: Judging risks and benefits Chapter 7. Knowing What You Want: Facing hard tradeoffs Chapter 8. Decision Making Competence: Are some people better decision makers? How Can Science Support Their Decision Making? Chapter 9. Giving Advice: A case study of its perils Chapter 10. Making Research Useful: Nuclear power, energy conservation, climate change, drug regulation, national security Chapter 11. Better Decisions: Empowerment and manipulation Chapter 12. Conclusion: Science at the boundaries Coda: The Pandemic of 2020+
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