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This paper addresses the problematic situation of school dropout in secondary schools in urban-marginal areas of Greater Mendoza (Argentina) and concludes with a projection to the year 2030. The main objective is to generate inputs for decision-making in the design of public policy measures for this educational level. The methodology used is the Godet method. Mic-Mac, Mactor and Morphological analyses were specified. The urban-marginal situation has become more complex in the province in recent years and secondary schools with these characteristics are less and less able to receive lower class students. High school dropout continues to be an unresolved problem in general in Argentina and particularly in Mendoza, which requires a transversal approach from the political and interdisciplinary point of view, as well as from the scientific point of view.