Louis Anthony Cox Jr.

Improving Risk Analysis

• Gebundenes Buch

Produktbeschreibung

Improving Risk Analysis shows how to better assess and manage uncertain risks when the consequences of alternative actions are in doubt. The constructive methods of causal analysis and risk modeling presented in this monograph will enable to better understand uncertain risks and decide how to manage them.

The book is divided into three parts. Parts 1 shows how high-quality risk analysis can improve the clarity and effectiveness of individual, community, and enterprise decisions when the consequences of different choices are uncertain. Part 2 discusses social decisions. Part 3 illustrates these methods and models, showing how to apply them to health effects of particulate air pollution.

"Tony Cox's new book addresses what risk analysts and policy makers most need to know: How to find out what causes what, and how to quantify the practical differences that changes in risk management practices would make. The constructive methods in Improving Risk Analysis will be invaluable in helping practitioners to deliver more useful insights to inform high-stakes decisions and policy,in areas ranging from disaster planning to counter-terrorism investments to enterprise risk management to air pollution abatement policies. Better risk management is possible and practicable; Improving Risk Analysis explains how."
Elisabeth Pate-Cornell, Stanford University

"Improving Risk Analysis offers crucial advice for moving policy-relevant risk analyses towards more defensible, causally-based methods. Tony Cox draws on his extensive experience to offer sound advice and insights that will be invaluable to both policy makers and analysts in strengthening the foundations for important risk analyses. This much-needed book should be required reading for policy makers and policy analysts confronting uncertain risks and seeking more trustworthy risk analyses."
Seth Guikema, Johns Hopkins University

"TonyCox has been a trail blazer in quantitative risk analysis, and his new book gives readers the knowledge and tools needed to cut through the complexity and advocacy inherent in risk analysis. Cox's careful exposition is detailed and thorough, yet accessible to non-technical readers interested in understanding uncertain risks and the outcomes associated with different mitigation actions. Improving Risk Analysis should be required reading for public officials responsible for making policy decisions about how best to protect public health and safety in an uncertain world."
Susan E. Dudley, George Washington University

Produktdetails

• International Series in Operations Research & Management Science 185
• Verlag: Springer / Springer New York / Springer, Berlin
• Artikelnr. des Verlages: 978-1-4614-6057-2
• Seitenzahl: 412
• Erscheinungstermin: 2. Februar 2013
• Englisch
• Abmessung: 241mm x 160mm x 27mm
• Gewicht: 747g
• ISBN-13: 9781461460572
• ISBN-10: 1461460573
• Artikelnr.: 36558349

Autorenporträt

Tony Cox is Professor of Business Analytics at the University of Colorado and President of Cox Associates, a Denver-based applied research company specializing in health, safety, and environmental risk analysis; epidemiology; policy analytics; data science; artificial intelligence; and operations research. Dr. Cox is Editor-in-Chief of Risk Analysis: An International Journal. He is Area Editor for Real World Applications for the Journal of Heuristics, and is on the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Operations Research and Information Systems. He has authored and co-authored over 200 journal articles and book chapters on these fields. His most recent books are Causal Analytics for Risk Analysis (Springer, 2018), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis (Wiley, 2015), Improving Risk Analysis (Springer, 2013), and the Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science (Wiley, 2011), which Dr. Cox co-edited. He has over a dozen U.S. patents on applications of artificial intelligence, signal processing, statistics and operations research in telecommunications. His current research interests include computational statistical methods for causal inference in public health risk analysis, data-mining, and advanced analytics for risk management, business, and public policy applications.

Inhaltsangabe

Causality for Risk Analysts: Improving Our Understanding of How the World Works.- Improving Individual Risk Management Decisions: Learning from Experience and Coping with Model Uncertainty.- Improving Community Risk Management: Managing Disaster Risks.- Improving Organizational Risk Management.- Improving Defense Against Intelligent Adversaries.- Managing Real and Percieved Risks: Animal Antibiotics and Drug-Resistant Infections.- Rethinking the Health Benefits fo Air Pollution Control.- Air Pollution and Health Risk Inequality.- A Causal Model of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD).- Exposure-Response Thresholds for Lung Disease.- An Exposure-Response Threshold for Lung Diseases and Lung Cancer Caused by Crystalline Silica.- Nonlinear Effects of Smoking on Coronary Heart Disease Risk.- Do Cold Weather and Fine Particulate Matter Air Pollution Cause Early Deaths in the Elderly?.- Conclusions and Recommendations: What Have We Learned?.

Rezensionen

From the reviews:

"This excellent book presents up-to-date material, various portions of which are sure to be of great interest to several distinct audiences. ... The book is full of thorough but accessible examples and case studies with extensive references to the literature. ... this is an important contribution to the literature in that it bridges the gap from theory to practice, includes many fields of application, and is accessible to a wide audience." (Charles R. Hadlock, SIAM Review, Vol. 55 (4), 2013)

From the book reviews:

"This book is well written, broad in scope, current in topics, concise, and includes many citations. To aid readers who might have been overwhelmed by the contents in the previous chapters, the conclusions in the last chapter summarize the author's messages. These conclusions and recommendations contrast how risk analysis is often practiced today and how it could be practiced to be more credible and useful. I believe this book will be a good source of insight for practitioners and academia." (Seong Dae Kim, Interfaces, Vol. 44 (6), November-December, 2014)

"This excellent book presents up-to-date material, various portions of which are sure to be of great interest to several distinct audiences. ... The book is full of thorough but accessible examples and case studies with extensive references to the literature. ... this is an important contribution to the literature in that it bridges the gap from theory to practice, includes many fields of application, and is accessible to a wide audience." (Charles R. Hadlock, SIAM Review, Vol. 55 (4), 2013)