Bill Emmott

Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Risk of Conflict Over Taiwan (eBook, PDF)

• Format: PDF

Produktbeschreibung

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world's two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war - in which the nuclear question would be ever-present - can currently be described as 'possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic'.

In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US-China conflict as 'inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable'.

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: Taylor & Francis eBooks
• Seitenzahl: 192
• Erscheinungstermin: 15. Juli 2024
• Englisch
• ISBN-13: 9781040223987
• Artikelnr.: 72289846

Autorenporträt

Bill Emmott is Chairman of the IISS Trustees and an independent writer and consultant. He spent 26 years at The Economist, which he joined in 1980, working as a correspondent and editor in Brussels, Tokyo and London, on subjects ranging from politics to finance, economics and business. In 1993, he was appointed editor-in-chief, a post he held for 13 years before stepping down in 2006.

He is Senior Adviser, Geopolitics for Montrose Associates, Chair of the Japan Society of the UK, an Ushioda Fellow of Tokyo College, University of Tokyo, Chair of the International Trade Institute, a trustee of the Chester Beatty Library, and a member of the Comitato Scientifico of the Centro Einaudi in Turin. He writes for La Stampa in Italy, Nikkei Business and the Mainichi Shimbun in Japan, and occasionally for the Financial Times. He is the author of numerous books on Japan, Asia, Italy and the West, his latest being The Fate of the West (Profile, 2017) and Japan's Far More Female Future: Increasing Gender Equality and Reducing Workplace Insecurity Will Make Japan Stronger (Oxford University Press, 2020).

Inhaltsangabe

Author
Acknowledgements
Map 1: Taiwan and its surrounding region
Introduction: Danger, hiding in plain sight
Chapter One: Why Indo-Pacific deterrence matters
Why the stakes in Taiwan are so high
The conflict to be deterred
Chapter Two: Deterrence lessons from Ukraine
Eight lessons from Ukraine
Specific implications for China
Specific implications for Taiwan
Specific implications for the United States
Chapter Three: Yardsticks for deterrence
A world in flux
Rationality without MADness
An unstable status quo
Yardsticks for Indo-Pacific deterrence
Chapter Four: Consistent America, inconstant America
Political will: consistency and clarity of deterrence messages
Military capability and coalition credibility
The narrative yardstick
Chapter Five: Taiwan and its predicament
Military resilience
Civil resilience
Narrative clarity
Chapter Six: Coercive China, deterrent China
Deterring an intervention
Controlling the nuclear risk
Controlling the narrative
Chapter Seven: Allies and partners: the role of Japan
Japan, from self-defence to constrained deterrence
Constrained but speedy?
Many unanswered questions
Chapter Eight: The Philippines, Australia and other partners
The Philippines as an unsinkable logistics centre
Australia: far away but now committed
Other allies and bystanders, near and far
ASEAN non-centrality
Limits to the ASEAN way
Dreaming of a more balanced region
Conclusion: Nostalgic for Cold War realism
Needed: the good aspect of Cold War diplomacy
Notes
Index