Harold L. Vogel

Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes (eBook, PDF)

• Format: PDF

Produktbeschreibung

Despite the thousands of articles and the millions of times that the word 'bubble' has been used in the business press, there still does not appear to be a cohesive theory or persuasive empirical approach with which to study 'bubble' and 'crash' conditions. This book presents a plausible and accessible descriptive theory and empirical approach to the analysis of such financial market conditions. It advances such a framework through application of standard econometric methods to its central idea, which is that financial bubbles reflect urgent short side rationed demand. From this basic idea, an elasticity of variance concept is developed. It is further shown that a behavioral risk premium can probably be measured and related to the standard equity risk premium models in a way that is consistent with conventional theory.

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: Cambridge University Press
• Erscheinungstermin: 14. Dezember 2009
• Englisch
• ISBN-13: 9781316097335
• Artikelnr.: 41009040

Autorenporträt

Harold (Hal) L. Vogel was the senior entertainment industry analyst at Merrill Lynch and inducted into Institutional Investor magazine's All-America Research Team Hall of Fame in 2011. Holder of a PhD in financial economics, he is also a chartered financial analyst (C.F.A.) and served as an adjunct professor at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business. His books include Entertainment Industry Economics: A Guide for Financial Analysis (10th edition 2020) and Travel Industry Economics: A Guide for Financial Analysis (4th edition 2021). He currently heads an independent investment and consulting firm in New York City.

Inhaltsangabe

1. Introduction.- 2. Bubble Stories.- 3. Crash Stories .- 4. Money and Credit Features.- 5. Random Walks.- 6. Rationality Rules.- 7. Behavioral Beats.- 8. Bubble Dynamics.- 9. Behavioral Risk Features.- 10. Estimating and Forecasting.- 11. Financial Asset Bubble Theory.