Cynthia Grabo

Handbook of Warning Intelligence (eBook, PDF)

• Format: PDF

Produktbeschreibung

This new and final edition is a follow-up to the author's first book, Anticipating Surprise (University Press of America, 2002) and the Handbook of Warning Intelligence (Scarecrow Press, 2010). The first book was an abridged version of Grabo's 1972 manuscript, of which only 200 pages were allowed to be published by the government. The second book was published after it was agreed that the last 10 chapters would remain classified. These final 10 chapters have recently been released by the government and complete the manuscript as it was originally intended to be published by the author in 1972. The Handbook of Warning Intelligence was written during the cold war and was classified for 40 years. Originally written as a manual for training intelligence analysts, it explains the fundamentals of intelligence analysis and forecasting, discusses military analysis, as well as the difficulties in understanding political, civil, and economic analysis and assessing what it means for analysts to have "warning judgment." Much of what Grabo wrote in her book seems to appear in many of the numerous commission reports that emerged after the 9/11 attacks. However, her book was written in response to the "surprise attack" of the Soviet Union's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. According to the author, that event was no surprise. And while analysts have to take some of the blame for their failure to strenuously present their case that the threat was real and imminent, what occurred was a failure by policymakers to listen to the warning intelligence reports that were written at the time. In these last chapters, Grabo discusses scenarios where the United States will need to take action, especially describing Soviet indicators of such action. She also talks on how to influence policymakers to take, or not take, action based on intelligence. After the Soviet Union fell, the government was hesitant to release this information-especially considering what's going on with Putin today.

Produktdetails

• Verlag: Bloomsbury eBooks US
• Seitenzahl: 454
• Erscheinungstermin: 9. September 2015
• Englisch
• ISBN-13: 9798765173930
• Artikelnr.: 74844421

Autorenporträt

Cynthia Grabo received her bachelor's and master's degrees from the University of Chicago. In 1942, she was recruited by Army Intelligence as an analyst on Latin America. In 1949, she transferred to the Soviet branch and was assigned to analysis of Communist military threats. From 1950 to 1975, she was a researcher and writer for the U.S. Watch Committee, the inter-agency intelligence committee responsible for warning of threats to the U.S. and its allies. She subsequently served on the Intelligence Community's Strategic Warning Staff. Ms. Grabo was a recognized authority in the field of strategic warning. Her awards included the Defense Intelligence Agency's Exceptional Civilian Service Medal, the Sherman Kent award for outstanding contribution to the literature of intelligence, and the National Intelligence Medal of Achievement.

Jan Goldman is Professor of Intelligence and National Security Studies at Tiffin University. He has been an analyst and educator in the intelligence and academic communities for over 30 years. He is the founding editor of a series of textbooks for the intelligence profession, Security Professionals Intelligence Education Series-SPIES (Rowman and Littlefield Publishers), and an academic journal focusing on ethics and intelligence. His most recent publications include War on Terror Encyclopedia: From the Rise of Al Qaeda to 9/11 and Beyond, and The Central Intelligence Agency: An Encyclopedia of Covert Operations, Intelligence Gathering, and Spies. He received his doctorate from George Washington University.

Inhaltsangabe

Foreword to the new edition Foreword to the previous edition Author's note
to the original edition Part I: Why Warning Intelligence And What Is It?
Some Fundamentals Chapter 1: General Nature of the Problem Chapter 2:
Definitions of Terms and Their Usage Chapter 3: What Warning Is and Is Not
Chapter 4: Warning and Collection Chapter 5: Intentions versus Capabilities
Part II: Organization and Tools of the Trade Chapter 6: Problems of
Organization and Management Chapter 7: Indicator lists Chapter 8: The
Compiling of Indications Chapter 9: Can Computers 'Hel p? Part III:
Introduction to the Analytical Method Chapter 10: Some Fundamentals of
Indications Analysis Chapter 11: Some Specifics of the Analytical Method.
Chapter 12: What Makes a Good Warning Analyst? Part IV: Specific Problems
of Military Analysis Chapter 13: Importance of Military Indications Chapter
14: Order of Bottle Analysis in Crisis Situations Chapter 15: Analysis of
Mobilization Chapter 16: Logistics is the Queen of Battles Chapter 17:
Other Factors in Combat Preparations Chapter 18: Coping with Extraordinary
Military Developments Part V: Specific Problems of Political, Civil and
Economic Analysis Chapter 19: Importance of Political Factors for Warning
Chapter 20: Basic Political Warning -- A Problem of Perception Chapter 21:
Some Specific Factors in Political Warning Chapter 22: Economic Indicators
Chapter 23: Civil Defense Chapter 24: Security, Counter-Intelligence and
Agent Preparations Part VI: Some Major Analytical Problems Chapter 25:
Warning from the Totality of Evidence Chapter 26: The Impact on Warning of
Circumstances Leading to War Chapter 27: Reconstructing the Enemy's
Decision Making Process Chapter 28: Assessing the Timing of Attack Chapter
29: Deception: Can We Cope With It? The following chapters are new to this
edition. Part VII: Problems of Particular Types Of Warfare Chapter 30:
Analysis with Hostilities Already in Progress Chapter 31: Problems Peculiar
to Guerrilla Warfare and "Wars of Liberation" Chapter 32: Hypothetical
Problems of the Coming of World War III Part VIII: Reaching And Reporting
The Warning Judgment Chapter 33: Vital Importance of the Judgment Chapter
34: What Does the Policy Maker Need, and Want to Know? Chapter 35: How to
Write Indications or Warning Items Chapter 36: Assessing Probabilities
Chapter 37: Some Major Factors Influencing Judgments and Reporting Chapter
38: Most Frequent Errors in the Judgment and Reporting Process Part IX:
Conclusions Chapter 39: A Summing Up, With Some Do's and Don'ts for
Analysts and Supervisors About the Authors