Limits of Predictability (eBook, PDF)

Redaktion: Kravtsov, Yurii A.

• Format: PDF

Produktbeschreibung

This book will appeal to a wide audience of scientists from all fields. It presents a broadranging discussion of the extent to which science and mathematics enable us to predict, and thereby control, the future. Examples are taken from physical, biological and socio-economic systems.

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• Seitenzahl: 255
• Erscheinungstermin: 6. Dezember 2012
• Englisch
• ISBN-13: 9783642510083
• Artikelnr.: 53095057

Inhaltsangabe

1. Introduction.- References.- 2. Forecasting Weather and Climate.- 2.1 Weather and Climate.- 2.2 Dynamical Systems and Their Properties.- 2.3 Weather Predictability.- 2.4 Elements of Stationary Random Process Prediction Theory.- 2.5 Predictability of Climatic Processes.- 2.6 Ways to Improve Statistical Forecasting.- 2.7 Utilization of Forecasting Results.- 2.8 Conclusion.- References.- 3. How an Active Autowave Medium Can Be Used to Predict the Future.- 3.1 Prediction.- 3.2 Active Autowave Media.- 3.3 Autowave Propagation in Energy-Restoring Active Media.- 3.4 Dynamics of Autowave Interaction.- 3.5 The External Medium Model and Its Fourier Image.- 3.6 Non-isochronism of Cyclic Processes.- 3.7 Harmonious Modulation and Modulation of Harmonics.- 3.8 The Fourier Image Cleared by the Active Autowave Medium.- References.- 4. Synergetics, Predictability and Deterministic Chaos.- 4.1 Dynamical Chaos.- 4.2 Nonlinearity and Open Systems Behavior.- 4.3 Synergetics and Order Parameters.- 4.4 Strangeness of the Strange Attractors.- 4.5 Dynamical Chaos and Reality.- 4.6 Dynamical Chaos. Gates of Fairyland.- References.- 5. The Information-Theoretic Approach to Assessing Reliability of Forecasts.- 5.1 Assessing Forecasts.- 5.2 Forecasting as the Subject Matter of Information Theory.- 5.3 An Example.- 5.4 Optimization of Forecasting Methods.- 5.5 Properties Shared by Prediction Methods.- 5.6 The Connection Between Discounting and Non-stationarity.- 5.7 Conclusion.- References.- 6. Prediction of Time Series.- 6.1 The Problem.- 6.2 Genesis of Random Phenomena.- 6.3 Time Series Prediction Based on Dynamical Chaos Theory.- 6.4 Prediction of Point Processes.- 6.5 The Nature of Errors Hindering Prediction.- 6.6 Prediction of Strong Earthquakes.- References.- 7. Fundamental and Practical Limits of Predictability.- 7.1 Predictability.- 7.2 Real, Observed, and Model Processes.- 7.3 Degree of Predictability. The Predictability Horizon.- 7.4 Searching for Prediction Models.- 7.5 Limits to Predictability.- 7.6 Dynamical Analogs to Social and Economic Phenomena.- 7.7 Conclusion.- References.- 8. The Future is Foreseeable but not Predictable: The 'Oedipus Effect' in Social Forecasting.- 8.1 Historical Background.- 8.2 The 'Oedipus Effect' in Social Forecasting.- 8.3 The Problem of Foresight and Prediction in Globalistics.- 8.4 The Problem of Foreseeing and Predicting the Development of the Former Soviet Society.- References.- Appendix A: Looking Back on the August 1991 Coup.- Appendix B: Looking Ahead.- 9. The Self-Organization of American Society in Presidential and Senatorial Elections.- 9.1 Historical Background.- 9.2 The American Presidential Election: Formal Analysis.- 9.3 Midterm Senatorial Elections: Formal Analysis.- 9.4 Discussion.- References.- 10. Problems of Predictability in Ethnogenic Studies.- References.