Sahra Wagenknecht

The Limits of Choice (eBook, PDF)

Saving Decisions and Basic Needs in Developed Countries

• Format: PDF

Produktbeschreibung

Wann und warum sparen private Haushalte? Sahra Wagenknecht untersucht in ihrer Dissertation den Zusammenhang von Sparentscheidungen und Grundbedürfnissen in Deutschland und den USA von den 1950er-Jahren bis heute. Ihre zentrale Hypothese lautet, dass der Einkommensanteil der Ausgaben zur Befriedigung von Grundbedürfnissen die entscheidende Erklärungsvariable des individuellen Sparverhaltens darstellt. In Abgrenzung zur Lebenszyklus- bzw. Permanenten Einkommenshypothese (LCPIH) kann Wagenknecht zeigen, dass die individuelle Sparquote entscheidend vom langfristigen Einkommen abhängt. Die Arbeit weist für einen Zeitraum von über 50 Jahren nach, dass sich auch auf volkswirtschaftlicher Ebene die Veränderung der privaten Sparquote durch den "necessity share" erklären lässt. Das vorgelegte Modell liefert zudem eine Erklärung, weshalb die private Sparquote bei steigender Einkommensungleichheit in Volkswirtschaften mit dereguliertem Kreditmarkt sinkt, während sie bei restriktiven Kreditmärkten steigt.

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: Campus Verlag GmbH
• Seitenzahl: 327
• Erscheinungstermin: 2. Oktober 2013
• Englisch
• ISBN-13: 9783593421117
• Artikelnr.: 39556399

Autorenporträt

Sahra Wagenknecht ist promovierte Volkswirtin, Publizistin und Politikerin, seit Oktober 2015 Vorsitzende der Linksfraktion im Deutschen Bundestag. Von 2010 bis 2014 war sie Stellvertretende Parteivorsitzende, von 2004 bis 2009 Abgeordnete im Europäischen Parlament.

Inhaltsangabe

Contents

List of Figures 11

List of Variables and Abbreviations 13

Introduction 19

Chapter 1. Stylised Facts of Saving

Paragraph 1.1 Data Sets and Statistical Issues 331.1.1 Various Saving Aggregates and Their Relationship 331.1.2 Macroeconomic Data Sources for the U.S. and Germany 341.1.3 Measurement Problems - Saving Offshore or Saving Out of Realised Capital Gains 361.1.4 Statistical Revisions 371.1.5 Microeconomic Data Sources for the U.S. and Germany 38

Paragraph 1.2 The Historic Path of Saving 401.2.1 General Trends in the OECD 401.2.2 Saving in the U.S. and its Various Components 401.2.3 Saving in Germany and its Various Components 44

Paragraph 1.3 Stylised Facts at the Macroeconomic Level 471.3.1 Real Income 471.3.2 Growth 491.3.3 Real Interest Rates 511.3.4 Inflation 521.3.5 Unemployment and Social Security Standards 541.3.6 Demographics 551.3.7 Inequality 551.3.8 Institutional Environment 581.3.9 Persistency 59

Paragraph 1.4 Stylised Facts at the Microeconomic Level 601.4.1 Macroeconomic Facts and Microeconomic Distributions 601.4.2 Saving Rates in Cross-Section 611.4.3 Current Income, Real and Relative 641.4.4 Permanent Income 721.4.5 The Distribution of Financial Wealth 741.4.6 Growth, Income Fluctuations and the Role of Expectations 791.4.7 Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving 831.4.8 Life-Cycle Patterns of Saving 851.4.9 Saving Motives 87

Paragraph 1.5 Summary: Stylised Facts of Saving 89

Chapter 2. Do Standard Models of Saving Match the Facts?

Paragraph 2.1 The Standard LCPIH 932.1.1 Basic Ideas of the Standard Approach 932.1.2 The Modigliani-Diagram 942.1.3 The Perfect Foresight Model in Discrete Time 972.1.4 The Perfect Foresight Model in Continuous Time 1012.1.5 The Certainty Equivalent Model 104

Paragraph 2.2 The Empirical Failure of the Standard Models 1082.2.1 Excess Sensitivity and Excess Smoothness - Ambiguous Results 1082.2.2 MPC and Income Growth - Wrong Predictions 1092.2.3 Incapability to Explain Saving Rate Differentials 110

Paragraph 2.3 Refinements: Allowing for Precautionary Saving, Liquidity Constraints and Habit Formation 1122.3.1 Convex Marginal Utility and the Precautionary Motive 1122.3.2 The Technique of Stochastic Dynamic Programming 1132.3.3 The Buffer-Stock Model 1162.3.4 Liquidity Constrained Consumers 1202.3.5 Models Including Habit Formation 121

Paragraph 2.4 Do the Elaborated Models Perform Better? 1252.4.1 Gain in Realism at the Cost of Predictive Power 1252.4.2 Remaining Deficiencies 126

Paragraph 2.5 The Optimal Consumption Path - General Remarks 1282.5.1 Hidden Assumptions and Fundamental Flaws 1282.5.2 Arguments of the Utility Function - Wealth as an End in Itself 1292.5.3 A Realistic Time-Horizon 1312.5.4 The Representative Consumer 1322.5.5 Per-period Consumption as a Single Entity 1382.5.6 The Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution 1412.5.7 The Optimising Procedure - Benefits and Costs 145

Chapter 3. A New Approach to Saving Behaviour

Paragraph 3.1 Basic Needs and Saving 1513.1.1 The Relative-Income Hypothesis 1513.1.2 Subsistence Consumption in Developing Countries 1523.1.3 Necessities in Developed Countries 156

Paragraph 3.2. Basic Needs in Standard Models 1593.2.1 Introducing Good-specific Subsistence Points into a Standard Dixit-Stiglitz framework 1593.2.2 Intertemporal Optimisation with Moving Subsistence Consumption 171

Paragraph 3.3 Modelling Saving Decisions by a Simple Rule of Thumb 1783.3.1 The Necessity Share in Outlay and in Income 1803.3.2 Determinants of Saving under the Proposed Rule of Thumb 1813.3.3 The Aggregated Saving Rate under the Given Rule of Thumb 1843.3.4 Factors Influencing the Propensity to Save and to Dissave 1913.3.5 Summary: Model Predictions 192

Chapter 4. The Patterns of Consumption Shares

Paragraph 4.1 How to Identify Basic Need

Contents

List of Figures 11

List of Variables and Abbreviations 13

Introduction 19

Chapter 1. Stylised Facts of Saving

Paragraph 1.1 Data Sets and Statistical Issues 33
1.1.1 Various Saving Aggregates and Their Relationship 33
1.1.2 Macroeconomic Data Sources for the U.S. and Germany 34
1.1.3 Measurement Problems - Saving Offshore or Saving Out of Realised Capital Gains 361.1.4 Statistical Revisions 37
1.1.5 Microeconomic Data Sources for the U.S. and Germany 38

Paragraph 1.2 The Historic Path of Saving 40
1.2.1 General Trends in the OECD 40
1.2.2 Saving in the U.S. and its Various Components 40
1.2.3 Saving in Germany and its Various Components 44

Paragraph 1.3 Stylised Facts at the Macroeconomic Level 47
1.3.1 Real Income 47
1.3.2 Growth 49
1.3.3 Real Interest Rates 51
1.3.4 Inflation 52
1.3.5 Unemployment and Social Security Standards 54
1.3.6 Demographics 55
1.3.7 Inequality 55
1.3.8 Institutional Environment 58
1.3.9 Persistency 59

Paragraph 1.4 Stylised Facts at the Microeconomic Level 60
1.4.1 Macroeconomic Facts and Microeconomic Distributions 60
1.4.2 Saving Rates in Cross-Section 61
1.4.3 Current Income, Real and Relative 64
1.4.4 Permanent Income 72
1.4.5 The Distribution of Financial Wealth 74
1.4.6 Growth, Income Fluctuations and the Role of Expectations 79
1.4.7 Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving 83
1.4.8 Life-Cycle Patterns of Saving 85
1.4.9 Saving Motives 87

Paragraph 1.5 Summary: Stylised Facts of Saving 89

Chapter 2. Do Standard Models of Saving Match the Facts?

Paragraph 2.1 The Standard LCPIH 93
2.1.1 Basic Ideas of the Standard Approach 93
2.1.2 The Modigliani-Diagram 94
2.1.3 The Perfect Foresight Model in Discrete Time 97
2.1.4 The Perfect Foresight Model in Continuous Time 101
2.1.5 The Certainty Equivalent Model 104

Paragraph 2.2 The Empirical Failure of the Standard Models 108
2.2.1 Excess Sensitivity and Excess Smoothness - Ambiguous Results 108
2.2.2 MPC and Income Growth - Wrong Predictions 109
2.2.3 Incapability to Explain Saving Rate Differentials 110

Paragraph 2.3 Refinements: Allowing for Precautionary Saving, Liquidity Constraints and Habit Formation 112
2.3.1 Convex Marginal Utility and the Precautionary Motive 112
2.3.2 The Technique of Stochastic Dynamic Programming 113
2.3.3 The Buffer-Stock Model 116
2.3.4 Liquidity Constrained Consumers 120
2.3.5 Models Including Habit Formation 121

Paragraph 2.4 Do the Elaborated Models Perform Better? 125
2.4.1 Gain in Realism at the Cost of Predictive Power 125
2.4.2 Remaining Deficiencies 126

Paragraph 2.5 The Optimal Consumption Path - General Remarks 128
2.5.1 Hidden Assumptions and Fundamental Flaws 128
2.5.2 Arguments of the Utility Function - Wealth as an End in Itself 129
2.5.3 A Realistic Time-Horizon 131
2.5.4 The Representative Consumer 132
2.5.5 Per-period Consumption as a Single Entity 138
2.5.6 The Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution 141
2.5.7 The Optimising Procedure - Benefits and Costs 145

Chapter 3. A New Approach to Saving Behaviour

Paragraph 3.1 Basic Needs and Saving 151
3.1.1 The Relative-Income Hypothesis 151
3.1.2 Subsistence Consumption in Developing Countries 152
3.1.3 Necessities in Developed Countries 156

Paragraph 3.2. Basic Needs in Standard Models 159
3.2.1 Introducing Good-specific Subsistence Points into a Standard Dixit-Stiglitz framework 159
3.2.2 Intertemporal Optimisation with Moving Subsistence Consumption 171

Paragraph 3.3 Modelling Saving Decisions by a Simple Rule of Thumb 178
3.3.1 The Necessity Share in Outlay and in Income 180
3.3.2 Determinants of Saving under the Proposed Rule of Thumb 181
3.3.3 The Aggregated Saving Rate under the Given Rule of Thumb 184
3.3.4 Factors Influencing the Propensity to Save and to Dissave 191
3.3.5 Summary: Model Predictions 192

Chapter 4. The Patterns of Consumption Shares

Paragraph 4.1 How to Identify Basic Needs? 197
4.1.1 Two Approaches to the His

Rezensionen

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung | Besprechung von 06.10.2013

Frau Doktor Wagenknecht
Die linke Politikerin hat eine Dissertation über das Sparen geschrieben

VON WINAND VON PETERSDORFF

Endlich mal eine Politikerin, die einen Doktortitel gewinnt, statt ihn zu verlieren: Die stellvertretende Vorsitzenden der Partei "Die Linke", Sahra Wagenknecht, hat im Oktober 2012 ihre Dissertation in Volkswirtschaft an der Technischen Universität Chemnitz verteidigt und ein "magna cum laude" eingeheimst. Im Zentrum der Studie, die Amerika und Deutschland vergleicht, steht: Warum und wann sparen Privatleute? Wagenknecht attackiert die klassischen Konsumfunktionen, nach denen die Leute ihr Kauf- und Sparverhalten an Erwartungen über das künftige Einkommen orientieren. Wagenknecht glaubt, belegen zu können, dass die Leute einfacher gestrickt sind. Sie sparen, was sie übrig haben. Das Sparverhalten sei eben nicht unabhängig vom aktuellen Einkommen. Die Arbeit ist für Feinschmecker, die mathematische Formeln und die englische Sparche nicht schrecken.

Sahra Wagenknecht: The Limits of Choice. Campus 39,90 Euro

Alle Rechte vorbehalten. © F.A.Z. GmbH, Frankfurt am Main

"Die Arbeit ist für Feinschmecker, die mathematische Formeln und die englische Sprache nicht schrecken.", Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, 06.10.2013